2014 PGA Championship – Round 2

By | August 8, 2014

We opened with an abomination of a day.  Matt Kuchar withdrew so we were left with four games.  Too bad there weren’t more withdrawals because we were 0-4 on the remaining games.    Ryan Moore couldn’t make a putt, Jim Furyk was on fire and Jerry Kelly played his best golf in years.  Much of the day went as predicted — calm weather, soft greens and fairways and GIRs dominated the leaderboard (almost the entire top 15 were 67% or better in GIR).

Handicapping is fickle (and frustrating).  I have been developing a statistics-based model (similar to what Stats does for other sports) for golf.  It has been in test mode for a while as I fine tune it.  I put all today’s games into the model and it returned 18 games.  Those games were 10-5-3 today (+2.4 units because of the preponderance of winning favorites).  Of course, the ones I posted were 0-4.  How bad am I running right now?  The chance of randomly picking four losers from those 18 games — 0.16%.  That’s right, 16 chances in 10,000.  Only one thing to do, trust the model and post everything.

Let’s get back those four units we lost today…  Here are the picks for Friday:

John Senden +128 over Bill Haas

Davis Love III +117 over Vijay Singh

Ryan Moore +132 over Henrik Stenson

Chris Kirk -114 over Seung-you Noh

Tommy Fleetwood +130 over Jerry Kelly

Zach Johnson -188 over Richard Sterne

Daniel Summerhays +111 over Geoff Ogilvy

Nick Watney -127 over Freddie Jacobson

Adam Scott -164 over Jordan Spieth

Kevin Chappell -155 over Matt Every

Graeme McDowell -124 over Brandt Snedeker

Thomas Bjorn -106 over Harris English

Jim Furyk -139 over Charl Schwartzel

 We’ll stick to one unit per play.  As the model gains traction, I’ll start weighting picks.

Best of luck to all.

plusfours

 

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