We opened with an abomination of a day. Matt Kuchar withdrew so we were left with four games. Too bad there weren’t more withdrawals because we were 0-4 on the remaining games. Ryan Moore couldn’t make a putt, Jim Furyk was on fire and Jerry Kelly played his best golf in years. Much of the day went as predicted — calm weather, soft greens and fairways and GIRs dominated the leaderboard (almost the entire top 15 were 67% or better in GIR).
Handicapping is fickle (and frustrating). I have been developing a statistics-based model (similar to what Stats does for other sports) for golf. It has been in test mode for a while as I fine tune it. I put all today’s games into the model and it returned 18 games. Those games were 10-5-3 today (+2.4 units because of the preponderance of winning favorites). Of course, the ones I posted were 0-4. How bad am I running right now? The chance of randomly picking four losers from those 18 games — 0.16%. That’s right, 16 chances in 10,000. Only one thing to do, trust the model and post everything.
Let’s get back those four units we lost today… Here are the picks for Friday:
John Senden +128 over Bill Haas
Davis Love III +117 over Vijay Singh
Ryan Moore +132 over Henrik Stenson
Chris Kirk -114 over Seung-you Noh
Tommy Fleetwood +130 over Jerry Kelly
Zach Johnson -188 over Richard Sterne
Daniel Summerhays +111 over Geoff Ogilvy
Nick Watney -127 over Freddie Jacobson
Adam Scott -164 over Jordan Spieth
Kevin Chappell -155 over Matt Every
Graeme McDowell -124 over Brandt Snedeker
Thomas Bjorn -106 over Harris English
Jim Furyk -139 over Charl Schwartzel
We’ll stick to one unit per play. As the model gains traction, I’ll start weighting picks.
Best of luck to all.