What a first day… Spieth comes out an fires 66. Day on his heels through 15 then an implosion. Rory making a mini-charge and Ernie had a 14-putt on the first hole. Seriously, serious respect to anyone that had the 6+ putt and over prop bet. I forced myself to watch what happened and I can only hope it doesn’t creep into my mind anytime in the next twenty years. He three-putted twice. From three feet. On the same hole. In the same round. Yikes.
As for our early action, the prop bets look terrible. Haas, Schwartzel and Moore are big disappointments. The tournament H2H bets are about where we expected them to be and the round one action sucked out loud. Down 1.66 units after a number of surprises, I want to get it back but nothing makes sense.
I was waiting to fade Day on Saturday but he ran out of gas today. Not sure what to expect the rest of the week but we’ll watch it closely. Anyone following last year knows we love Lowry’s game (and he made a lot of money for us last year) but there was no reason to pick him this week. Bad results this year notwithstanding Lowry was a few putts away from 65 today. Absent good indicators, I fall back on regressions to the mean. The books have all done the same and the lines are extra terrible. I have one play for Friday:
Z Johnson +101 over Fowler, 1 unit
Not that any of the readers care but Stats and I scored invites to Winged Foot and Quaker Ridge this evening so I have that going for me…
Good luck tomorrow and watch carefully. Saturday should be better action.
Best of luck,