Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals – 7:15 PM EST
The Cardinals have won the first three games of this four-game set against the Pirates while allowing six total runs. Tonight, Shelby Miller takes the hill for St. Louis, and he has had quite the slump in his sophomore season. His ERA has jumped from 3.06 to 4.15, and his K/9 rate has fallen from 8.8 to 6.2. This would indicate a possible bounce-back victory for Pittsburgh, but the value here lies with the Cardinals. Here’s why:
1. As previously stated, Shelby Miller has been bad this season. Bettors are about as down as can be on him. This has pushed the line to a very reasonable -115 price.
2. Pittsburgh is sending Edinson Volquez to the mound. Volquez has historically struggled with his control, and this season is no different. The Cardinals are just the type of patient team to take advantage of a pitcher who won’t pitch to contact.
3. The Cardinals are coming off three straight victories against this very same Pirates team. The players didn’t suddenly switch uniforms overnight. The Cardinals want to gain ground on Milwaukee while simultaneously burying the Pirates, and this home game is a perfect opportunity to do it.
I’ll say it again: this is an absurdly reasonable line for the Cardinals at home against a mediocre pitcher.
PLAY: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS ML -115