Bases Loaded: MLB July 11th

By | July 11, 2014

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Indians – 7:05 PM EST

The White Sox are coming off a 4-game split in Boston, where they lost a pair of walk-off heartbreakers in the last two days. They travel to Cleveland to face the Indians, who are sending Corey Kluber to toe the rubber tonight. Kluber took a giant leap forward last year to become the ace in Cleveland and has followed that up with an amazing season to this point in 2014. His 2.86 ERA and 2.66 FIP are indicative of an All-Star caliber pitcher, and he has passed the eye test as well this year. Bettors are scrambling to back him, as the moneyline has been slammed all the way up as high as -230 at MGM sportsbooks. This creates an obvious run-line fade spot for the following reasons:

1. There are maybe 2-3 pitchers in all of MLB who actually have the peripheral statistics to back up a line of -230 against ANYONE. Corey Kluber is not one of them.

2. White Sox starter Hector Noesi is quietly having a much improved season since joining Chicago in April. Noesi has generally been an obvious fade or over bet for gamblers throughout his short career, but has taken a small step forward as of late. His 4.13 ERA for the White Sox over 14 appearances in 2014 is over a run lower than his career average.

3. With a total of only 7.5, oddsmakers believe this will be a low-scoring game for the American League. This provides value in the run-line for Chicago due to the increased possibility of a narrow Cleveland victory with few runs scored.

With the vastly inflated line, there is a ton of profit potential in the White Sox here.


MP Sports
Twitter: @MWPGT

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