Bases Loaded: MLB July 22nd

By | July 22, 2014

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics – 10:05 PM EST

The Astros, coming off a wild 11-7 victory in Chicago over the White Sox on Sunday, are traveling to Oakland to face the Athletics. Everyone knows by now that the A’s are a juggernaut, and the public sentiment in their favor is at an all-time high. The line for this game opened at Oakland -210 at BetOnline, and has risen as high as -290 at and -280 at Stations Casinos here locally. The public money continues to pound Oakland despite the heavy juice. This has made a play on this game very easy for the following reasons:

1. The pitching. Scott Kazmir has been among the most profitable pitchers in MLB to back this season, with Oakland posting a 15-4 mark in games he has started. This is despite a good-but-not-great 3.20 FIP that puts doubt to the relevance of his 2.38 ERA. Houston counters with Brett Oberholtzer, who has a 2-7 record with a 4.50 ERA. However, his 3.62 FIP puts him near the same category with Kazmir as to how he has truly performed this season.

2. The total. The total for this game opened at 7.5 heavily juiced to the under and has sat relatively flat for the duration of current betting. This could be pushed down as low as a flat 7 by the time the game starts.

3. The run line. Due to the low total, the current Houston run line of +1.5 +105 is amazingly valuable. There is virtually no circumstance in MLB where a road team should be getting +1.5 AND plus juice. It’s almost always a positive estimated value, even when the total is high. With a total this low? It’s an absolute no brainer.

Straightforward call tonight. Astros with the run and a half.

PLAY: [973] HOUSTON ASTROS +1.5 +105 (List Brett Oberholtzer)

MP Sports
Twitter: @MWPGT

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