Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves – 7:05 PM EST
The first two games of this series were drama-filled affairs won in dramatic fashion by the Marlins, with one being in extra innings. The third game was a blowout victory for Atlanta, aided by a timely Freddie Freeman home run. Tonight, the Braves look to gain a 2-2 split in this series by sending Aaron Harang and his 9-6 record to the mound. The Marlins counter with Henderson Alvarez, who has followed up last year’s breakout season with an equally impressive series of performances so far this season and an All-Star appearance. However, there are several reasons to value Atlanta tonight:
1. Aaron Harang’s resurgence. After spending several years bouncing between teams and struggling mightily, Harang seems to have found himself in Atlanta. His 3.55 FIP is comparable to Alvarez’s 3.32.
2. Henderson Alvarez’s alarming lack of strikeouts. Alvarez averages only 5.5 K/9, an exceedingly low rate for an effective starting pitcher. He minimizes walks, sure, but pitching to contact and being willing to allow hits is not generally a strategy that works against top teams.
3. Deflated number. This game opened at -159 and has fallen as low as -122. This downward plunge has created a ton of value on the favored Braves on their home field. The opening number may have initially favored Miami, but Atlanta is the way to go now.
PLAY: ATLANTA BRAVES ML -125 (List Aaron Harang)
BONUS PLAY: LOS ANGELES ANGELS ML -112 (List Garrett Richards)