Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Dodgers – July 8th, 7:05 PM EST
Let’s cut to the chase: Justin Verlander has struggled this year by his standards. He currently owns a 7-7 record, a 4.71 ERA, and a whole lot of unanswered questions as to why he has failed to maintain his dominance this season. Hyun-Jin Ryu, on the other hand, has followed up his stellar 2013 rookie campaign with a virtually identical season. His consistency in the middle of the rotation has been a godsend for the Dodgers, who many thought to lack depth in their starting pitching heading into last season behind studs Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. However, there are some underlying factors here that would indicate value on the Tigers:
1. The Tigers had won 12 of their previous 14 games before falling in the final 3 of the series against Tampa that culminated in a woeful 7-3 loss on Sunday Night Baseball. Their perceived “fall from grace” on the national stage is a bit overplayed.
2. Justin Verlander is undefeated in interleague play at home. In his 14 career interleague appearances at Comerica Park, he is 13-0 with a 1.83 ERA.
3. The Dodgers are coming off of a dominant performance in a four-game set against a beaten-down Colorado team at Coors in which they won 3 of 4 and scored 27 runs. These stats are toothless, as Colorado is dealing with a plethora of injuries and run totals are heavily inflated at Coors. The perceived value of Los Angeles is at a seasonal peak.
All of this has led to a posted line of -110 on the Detroit moneyline which is not indicative of the true odds in this game.
PLAY: DETROIT TIGERS ML -110 (List Justin Verlander)
TAMPA BAY RAYS +EV (List Jeremy Hellickson)