Almost every bet we make has a money line associated with it. Many of you are familiar with the NFL which is typically a spread and money line, usually -110. What I want to speak on more specifically is games without a spread and just a ML.
Baseball is a classic ML betting sport. While there are bets on a run line, the majority of wagers on baseball are placed on the ML. Here is how I go about figuring out my wager size.
If you are following my baseball posts you will see that I post the odds in Vegas or Offshore (Posted Odds) and the True Odds which are the odds as I think they should be based on my model. You can never totally have true odds on a sporting event as there are many variables. Having true odds on a roll of the dice or coin flip are much easier to figure out. This is why modeling sports is so difficult.
Firstly I am looking for a +5% or greater Expected Value %. Expected Value is what I expect to make or lose on this bet each time I make it. You figure that out simply by multiplying how much you will win if the bet wins by the probability you have of winning and then subtracting what you would lose if the bet lost multiplied by the probability of a loss. The simplest case is a coin flip 50/50 proposition that pays $5 to you for a heads and you pay $4 for every tail. You would be expected to win $5 x 50% – $4 x 50% which equals $2.50 – $2.00 or + $.50. So if you were to take this bet over time you can expect to make $.50 per flip.
To find the EV% first determine if the implied odds are positive or negative
-EV/Imp Odds x Min Win/100
You can download the below calculator to help in excel.