MP’s Pigskin Picks – NCAA Football Week 12

By | November 13, 2014

Light week last week with just two twitter plays, both winners. Around the NCAA, however, there was one near-upset and one monumental upset that shook the playoff landscape. Auburn’s defeat as a 23.5-point favorite at home against Texas A&M was both shocking and befuddling. Their plethora of mistakes down the stretch were all mostly mental errors. It was difficult to watch them throw the season away like that, but alas, that’s college football. They now travel to Athens to play against Georgia, where a much more difficult meeting awaits them in a must-win game in the SEC title chase for the Bulldogs. Not a good stretch to be a Tiger fan.

The Tigers’ in-state rivals in Tuscaloosa, however, were able to gut out a 20-13 overtime victory in Baton Rouge over LSU. Alabama continues to chug along, still controlling their own national championship destiny, and there appears to be no end in sight. A visit this weekend from #1 Mississippi State would look difficult on paper, but Alabama has quickly become a prohibitive 8.5-point favorite in the market, and even that number might be a little short. I don’t see these Bulldogs having a chance to win this game. The future date with Auburn should be more of a test for the Crimson Tide than this one.

Oregon continues to decimate Pac-12 competition since their home loss to Arizona, and has somehow passed FSU in the committee’s rankings despite FSU’s undefeated record. Pretty ridiculous. It would be hard to make a case against the Ducks’ inclusion inside the top 4, but their seemingly high-value win over Michigan State took a big hit last weekend when Ohio State took the Spartans to task in East Lansing. The Buckeyes are again the Big Ten candidate for the playoff, but the committee seems to have a low opinion of that early season defeat to Virginia Tech. Seems odd that a loss as a 10-point favorite at home would hold more weight than Oregon’s loss as a 23-point favorite at home against Arizona. I guess that’s just bias for you.

Big 12 juggernauts Baylor and TCU both continue to jockey for position, with Baylor destroying Oklahoma in Norman and TCU running up the points on previous #7 Kansas State at home. Baylor’s head-to-head victory over the Horned Frogs would seem to give them a leg up here, but it remains to be seen what the committee thinks of this battle.

We start this week with a Thursday night move that I posted yesterday. Good luck.

313 Southern Miss +10 -120 (MGM)
321 Wake Forest +17 (Stratosphere)
323 Temple +11.5 (Stratosphere)
341 Virginia Tech +5.5 (Stations)
355 Utah +7.5 (Wynn)

MP Sports
Twitter: @MWPGT

2014 Season-to-Date:

NCAA FB: 43-35
NFL: 2-2

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