NFL Week 4 – Results

By | September 29, 2015

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Last week was one to forget as we go 4-8 on the picks.  Most of you reading this have been with the system since 2011 and have seen weeks like this before.  It is never a coincidence that the public dominates a week when we do poorly.  Not that we try and be contrarian but the picks tend to find ones the public isn’t on.  That is usually a good thing.  But last week was different.

The first three weeks of the season are looked at differently than the rest of the season with the system.  They primarily take into account last season and the perceptions of those teams.  So in most cases teams that did poorly last season will score higher in the ratings than teams who had great success because historically those teams have outperformed in the early part of the season.  We have discussed why that is the case before.  Obviously the publics perception of a team is 90% or more based on what that team did the prior year.

What has held true in the past has not so far this season.  If you just took teams that made the playoffs the prior season playing teams that did not you would be 16-10.  Teams that won 11 or more games last season (Green Bay, Denver, Dallas, Seattle, New England) playing teams that did not are 9-4.  Those teams are typically going to be heavy public teams which usually gives us a bit of an edge on the spread but this year they have been able to beat that edge easily.

As we move to week 4 none of that really matters.  What does matter is how the system looks at week 4 and what trends it deems significant.  Last season the system was a bit cooler than it had been in the past and part of that was due to some trends that have been changing.  Some of the trends looked at involve penalties.  With the increase in penalties as well as the types of penalties that are being called there has been a change in the trends.  As a byproduct of this we are seeing the passing game become more and more important to a teams success on the field and against the spread.  Some trends have been found in regards to this over the last two seasons.  This season I am incorporating them into the plays as I have been able to test them in a live environment with success.

Let’s start turning things around here in week 4

NFL Week 4

  1. Cleveland +8………………………….64% W
  2. Kansas City +3.5……………………64% L
  3. St. Louis +7…………………………..63% W
  4. Chicago +3…………………………….62% W
  5. Miami +1.5…………………………….60% L
  6. Seattle -9.5…………………………….58% L
  7. Atlanta -6………………………………58% W
  8. Denver -6.5……………………………58% L
  9. Green Bay -8.5……………………….57% W
  10. Washington +3……………………….56% W
  11. Indianapolis -9.5…………………….55% (Do not play if Luck is not starting)
  12. NY Giants +5.5……………………….55% W

New Orleans -3 59% with Brees playing will be added W

Leans for pools
Baltimore
Tampa Bay

8-4 ATS

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