Every year I publish a series of criteria for a final four and championship team to help you fill out your brackets. I am going to go over a few individually and then put it all together when the brackets are released.
Using the PASE (Performance above seed expectations) stat from the now defunct Bracket Science the number one determinant of being able to outperform your seed expectation is scoring margin.
119 teams have been a 1-4 seed and come in to the tournament with a 15+ scoring margin. 49 have made the final 4 (41%) and 17 have won it all (14.3%).
Using Joe Lunardi’s brackets at ESPN Bracketology here are how the current 1-5 seeds stack up
We will use the top 5 seeds for now as some 5’s could potentially become a 4.
Not a very impressive list. Just Michigan St has a scoring margin over 15.
There have been 8 teams in the tournament with a 15+ scoring margin and a strength of schedule 70 or worse. None made it to an elite 8. Nobody fits this as Michigan St has a strength of schedule of 57.
Of the 145 teams to get a 1-4 seed and have a scoring margin under 10 just 2 have won a title and 11 have gone to the final 4.
With that in mind Miami, Oregon, Iowa St, and Texas are looking like pretty good fades if they are a 1-4 seed.