We get on the board with a plus week for the first time this season. Hopefully we can build some momentum and have one of our signature big weeks in week 5.
Scoring is creeping up to last years level. Teams are averaging 23.1 ppg through the first 4 weeks. Fractions off last years record numbers.
Top Teams ATS
Bottom Teams ATS
NY Jets 0-3
As I mentioned last week, shopping these lines is of the utmost importance. Getting 5.5 on that Philly game wound up being the difference in a win or loss. Every game we have this week outside of maybe Atlanta and New England are right around a key number. I get these games out fairly early in the week to give everyone time to shop. There is no reason to put in every game 5 minutes before the opening kick. If you are unsure about where a game will move, and really nobody knows for sure, then “cost average” in. Bet fractions of a unit each day to get yourself in at an average price. Otherwise grab a line you like when you see it. Having multiple outs will also help but that is difficult for those not in Vegas.
Either I am a total idiot or I stick to my model 100%. Perhaps it is both. Once again I will be backing Jacksonville this week. I enjoy hearing the texts and emails bashing Jacksonville every time the model has them as a pick. I am not in love with it either but the computer is looking at trends that have been successful in the past. What has worked in the past is taking teams off bad performances. A bad performance is not always measured in points, it gets a bit deeper than that, but essentially when you look at who will fit a lot of these trends it is going to be a team that was bad last week or all season long. In doing this we get stuck with duds like Jacksonville. We go through it every year and we will in the future. If we could predict who that team is before the season it would make life much easier. The system is not a crystal ball, it is just finding past trends and applying them to current situations.
You will notice the amount of games is slightly less than we usually have. The model weighs trends on both their historical significance and their recent success. Just having a strong historical trend is not good enough. Many of the trends that have been profitable in the past are lagging this season and as such are losing weight inside the model. So less games will trigger as a play until trends turn around.
NFL Week 5