Statsational NFL Divisional Round

By | January 6, 2015

Great weekend for us as we were able to hit the last 3 games and go 3-1 on the week.  Kind of the story of the year for us.  We dominated 3 games and won them all and the one game we got killed in we had a couple of chances to get lucky and it didn’t pan out.  That was the type of game that has gone against us most of the season and we weren’t able to get one back.

Baltimore +7 @ New England
The game opened early at -7.5 and jumped immediately to -8.5 before the sharps hammered it down to -7.  It is rare that New England at home in the playoffs are not being over bet by the public but right now the books are taking just a little over 50% on the Pats.  The main reason may be that Baltimore is 3-0 in Foxboro ATS in the playoffs against Brady and 2-1 SU.  The 2 wins were fairly convincing 33-14 in 2010 and 28-13 in 2013.  The one loss in 2012 was 23-20 when Baltimore had a drop in the end zone late followed by a missed FG to tie.  Sometimes a team just matches up well with another team.  For instance the Jets have not lost by more than 3 in New England in the last 3 seasons.  This year Baltimore has been almost a 3 point favorite on average.  They have a 10 point edge over that number.  Baltimore on the road has a scoring margin of +3.  Of course New England has been pretty good at home with a +16.25 scoring margin.  Tom Brady since his last Super Bowl win is 6-11 ATS in the playoffs.  The worst record in that span.  Those 6 wins came against Luck, Leftwich, Schaub, Pennington, Tebow and Rivers.  Outside of a young Andrew Luck and Philip Rivers that is not exactly the who’s who in elite NFL QB’s.  Flacco is 10-4 ATS in the playoffs.  1-1 Against Peyton and 1-2 against Big Ben.  Nobody else has been able to beat him outside of TJ Yates(nobody is perfect).  No matter what Flacco does he does not get any credit and especially not against Brady.  Baltimore should be a 4 point dog.  We will take the extra 3 points they are giving us here.  Baltimore +7.

Carolina +10.5 @ Seattle

Carolina won last week in the playoffs to get themselves to .500.  Rare to see a .500 team in the divisional round but that is what we have.  Thanks to the Cowboys come back win Seattle gets the seemingly easier draw.  This is a team Seattle should know fairly well.  Wilson has faced Cam 3 times going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. All of those games were in Carolina.  Neither team has scored over 16 in the 3 games.  That is almost the line on this game.  The last time they met on Oct 26 the line was -6.  Factoring in 3 points for home field advantage that line was probably -12 if in Seattle.  Maybe slightly higher since they give a little extra to Seattle at home.  In the Wilson era the two other QB’s they have faced that will run read option are Kaepernick and Griffin.  They have gone 6-0-1 ATS in those games.  The Seahawks obviously have a strong defense but they also have a defensive coach who won at the college level and knows how to defend running QB’s.  They also practice against a similar style offense.  Cams accuracy is the biggest issue Carolina will have in this game.  His fundamentals have not improved since coming into the league.  Expect the Seahawks to turn him over at least twice.  Carolina is 21st in the league in yards per pass.  That is a key stat in playoff success as is quarterback rating differential which they rank 21st as well with a negative differential.  Nothing points toward a potential upset.  Seattle -10.5


Dallas +6 @ Green Bay
For the first time ever a team that went 8-0 on the road is playing a team that went 8-0 at home in the playoffs.  Dallas had an amazing +11.5 road scoring margin but Green Bay was an equally impressive +19.4 at home.  The Cowboys big win this year was at Seattle, with the win in Philadelphia being next best.  The rest of the teams they beat on the road were a combined 26-70.  These teams come in 1 and 2 in quarterback rating differential.  They are also 1 and 2 in yards per pass.  Aaron Rodgers is one of the best QB’s in the game ATS.  61-40 in the regular season and 5-3 in the post season.  Tony Romo is 59-62 ATS in the regular season and 1-3 ATS in the post season.  The big story in this game could be the temperature.  The windchill will be in the single digits.  Not weather Dallas will be used to playing in.  Rodgers is 21-9 ATS when the temp is below 40.  Green Bay -6
Indianapolis +7 @ Denver

Luck looked sharp last week as the Colts were able to handle the Bengals fairly easily in the wild card round.  Now they step up in class and head out to Denver to face none other than Colt legend Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.  Andrew Luck is 33-18 career ATS.  You worry about done teams going outdoors in the playoffs but the weather should cooperate.  40’s and sunny with little wind.  That may actually be a bad thing for the Colts as we have seen that Peyton in the wind is not very good.  The biggest question surrounding this game is Peyton Manning’s health.  Fantasy owners know that Manning was not his typical Peyton self in the final month or so.  His last 5 games were 94 for 155 for 233 5 TD’s and 6 INT.  There has always been value in betting against Manning in the playoffs but I think that value has never been as great as it is this season.  We are seeing the end of Manning and the start of the Luck era.  Colts +7

NFL Divisional Week

1. Indianapolis +7………………62%
2. Baltimore +7…………………61%
3. Green Bay -6………………..57%
4. Seattle -10.5…………………55%

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