Statsational NFL Week 4 Picks 4-7-1

By | September 27, 2016

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Good start to the season for us so far.  We go 8-3 last week to up the record to 20-12 overall on the season.  As I stated last week we will be moving into the part of the season that changes things in the model.  During weeks 1-3 the focus is heavier on the previous season.  Now we start to get into this seasons stats.  This will continue through week 16.  Come week 17 things change a bit.

The “experts” will continue to tell you about the surprises from last week.  The NFL is, to steal Dan Ariely’s title, Predicatbly Irrational.  The overwhelming majority of teams are extremely close in talent.  All we are doing is exploiting when the lines are skewed slightly to one side and then pouncing on that.  It is the reason we tend to have more dogs than favorites.  You will however see 3 favorites on our board this week.  Not shockingly these 3 teams did not look good last week.  Hopefully we can catch them at a depressed number.

NFL Week 4

1. Chicago +3……………………………………..62% W
2. NY Giants +4………………………………….62% L
3. Tennessee +7………………………………….61% P
4. Los Angeles +8………………………………..60% W
5. New Orleans +3.5…………………………….58% W
6. Carolina -3………………………………………58% L
7. Cleveland +8…………………………………….58% L
8. Indianapolis -2.5………………………………57% L
9. Miami +7………………………………………….57% L
10. San Francisco +3…………………………….55% L
11. Pittsburgh -6…………………………………..55% W

Jets +3 just opened and will also be added to the plays. L

Leans

Buffalo
Baltimore
Denver

BOL

Stats

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