Statsational NFL Week 9

By | October 29, 2014
No blood last week as we split our games.  Last week I spoke about using teasers on certain lines.  For those that can do it it paid off as Philly teased with either Buffalo or Minnesota was a winner.

Another way to help lower the house edge is buying points.  Up until a few years ago I assumed buying points was a bad idea or it would not be offered.  That is generally the case, with a small exception.  Most books will allow you to buy a half point for 10 cents if it is not on a key number.  The key numbers will likely have a buy of 20 cents.  (Some books will not allow moving on or off key numbers so check with your book.)

Here is a chart from the Wizard of Odds website
Buying a Half Point Off the Spread
Spread Fair Price
0 0.4
1 4.4
2 4.4
3 21.4
4 6.7
5 3.7
6 7.4
7 14
8 4.6
9 2.2
10 10.6
11 5.2
12 3.2
13 5.4
14 9.9
15 2.9
16 4.5
17 7.9
18 5.6
19 4.3
20 3.5
21 9.8
This chart should answer any questions you have on buying points.  As you can see the highest you should ever pay is 21.4 cents and that is on the 3.  Paying 20 cents therefore gives you a slight edge.  If you want to limit variance I would suggest buying points there for 20 cents or less.  I personally will buy the half point around the 3 whenever the juice is under -110.  If I have -3 ev I take -2.5 -120.
That Wizard of Odds site has a lot of useful information.  I suggest browsing for any type of gambling you are looking to do.
If you follow my offensive and defensive rankings take a look at combined offensive passing and defensive passing rankings.  I do not have it listed on the site but when combined the top 5 teams are Indianapolis, Denver, Washington, New England, Detroit.  Washington jumps off the page as a team not belonging in that group.  I look at this stat because passing stats have become the most important thing to look at in the NFL.  If RG3 can come back and be close to the same player he was the Redskins may be tougher than they look down the stretch.When looking at the combination of rushing offense and defense the top 5 are Denver, Dallas, SF, Seattle and NY Jets.  Hard to imagine a 1-7 team with great numbers against the rush considering they are down often and teams are trying to run out the clock.  But they Jets have been able to run the ball well and hold their opponents to under their average.  If the Jets can figure the turnovers out they may be a good team ATS the rest of the way.

We are looking at two of the bigger dogs as our top plays this week.  We rarely lay that many points so it is not a big surprise.  Blindly taking teams getting more than 10 points over the last 10 seasons has won over 56.6% of the time.  3 of those seasons would have netted a loss with the worst being 13-13 in 2005.
The Jet game is interesting in that Kansas City has averaged a point spread of +2.85 and now they are a double digit favorite.  The Jets have a similar average at +2.5.  The books have gotten both of these teams wrong all year as the Chiefs are 5-2 ATS and the Jets 1-7.  This sort of imbalance sets it self up for a nice opportunity for us.  This is the “they are due” play except with numbers to back the situation.  Similar situations presented itself last week when we had Washington over Dallas.
San Diego has trap game written all over it.  Without any model it is not a game I would normally play.  But the last couple of seasons these seemingly too good to be true games have been winning.  There are many trends pointing toward San Diego here and none for Miami.  One we have spoken about in the past is teams coming off a road loss who go back on the road in conference.  The spot is 6-4 this season with a 61% win rate over the last 10.

NFL Week 9
1. NY Jets +10…………………………72%
2. Jacksonville +11…………………….69%
3. Tampa Bay +6.5…………………….65%
4. San Diego +1.5…………………….64%
5. Philadelphia -2………………………61%
6. Baltimore pk…………………………61%
7. New Orleans -2……………………..57%
8. Indianapolis -3……………………….56%
9. New England +3…………………….54%
St Louis

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