Statsational NFL Win Totals 2017

By | September 5, 2017

Once again I will be taking a look at the NFL win total board to see if we can find some bargain prices.  I start the process by running a simulation of each teams schedule based off of last years statistics.  This gives us a good baseline to start from.  Here is the list of every teams Expected Wins and Losses for the season based on those simulations.

 

Team Exp Wins Exp Losses Total Over Juice Under Juice Over EV Under EV
Arizona 10.0 6.0 8.5 -130 100 20 -31
Atlanta 10.0 6.0 9.5 -160 130 -24 10
Baltimore 8.8 7.2 8.5 125 -155 18 -33
Buffalo 7.8 8.2 6.5 100 -130 35 -55
Carolina 7.3 8.7 9 -130 100 -53 35
Chicago 6.6 9.4 5.5 130 -160 58 -79
Cincinnati 8.6 7.4 8.5 -105 -125 2 -18
Cleveland 5.1 10.9 4.5 -130 100 32 -41
Dallas 9.4 6.6 0 -100
Denver 8.5 7.5 0 -100
Detroit 7.1 8.9 7.5 100 -130 5 -21
Green Bay 8.6 7.4 10.5 110 -140 -42 33
Houston 7.9 8.1 8.5 -115 -115 -32 17
Indianapolis 8.3 7.7 0 -100
Jacksonville 7.7 8.3 6.5 -150 120 18 -28
Kansas City 8.2 7.8 0 -100
LA Chargers 7.8 8.2 0 -100
LA Rams 4.4 11.6 6 115 -145 -39 32
Miami 6.5 9.5 7.5 110 -140 -21 10
Minnesota 8.5 7.5 0 -100
New England 11.0 5.0 0 -100
New Orleans 8.7 7.3 0 -100
NY Giants 7.8 8.2 8.5 -150 120 -54 35
NY Jets 5.8 10.2 4 140 -175 65 -85
Oakland 7.9 8.1 9.5 -105 -125 -50 40
Philadelphia 8.6 7.4 8.5 -125 -105 -7 -7
Pittsburgh 9.6 6.4 10.5 -165 135 -60 42
San Francisco 4.9 11.1 5 105 -135 -10 -1
Seattle 9.6 6.4 10.5 -125 -105 -36 19
Tampa Bay 8.2 7.8 8.5 -115 -115 -3 -12
Tennessee 8.4 7.6 9 105 -135 7 -23
Washington 8.4 7.6 7.5 120 -150 46 -66

Some of these teams do not have any totals listed for many books.  This is due to uncertainty with some players for injury and suspension.

 

I will go over each of the totals yielding a +EV according to the model that I feel are worth a wager.

NY Jets o4 +140

The Jets moves this offseason look an awful lot like they are willing to tank this season in the hopes of drafting Sam Darnold QB USC with the first pick.  The problem with tanking is it can only be done by the front office.  The players on the field are playing for their jobs as are the coaches.  Tanking in NBA is a bit easier as players are signed to bigger contracts with guaranteed money.  A star on an NBA team may not give it his all night in night out when the team is terrible.  Not the case in the NFL.  So while the Jets will likely be one of the worst teams in the league we are still getting a good price on the over.

Chicago o5.5 +130

QB play is the most important thing to look at when it comes to NFL win total projections.  Last season the Bears started Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley and Jay Cutler.  Each for about 1/3 of the teams starts.  With that triad of mediocre QB’s the Bears should have won 6.6 games.  If the ball bounced right they were a 7 win team.  Instead they won 3 which leaves a bad taste in bettors mouths coming into this season.  PFF lists the Bears with the 5th best offensive line in the league.  Mike Glennon is as good if not better than the collective 3 QB’s from last season.  Backup rookie Mitchell Trubisky had a good preseason and could see the field before the season ends which may be a good thing for us.  I love this over and we will be taking it.

Washington o7.5 +120

The Redskins were an 8 win team last season.  They lose Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson at WR but pick up Terrelle Pryor and Brian Quick.  This appears to be a downgrade at the position but the Redskins feel Josh Doctson and Jamison Crowder can pick up the slack.  Overall I expect this WR unit to be fairly comparable to last seasons. With that I see no big change in win total expectancy.  The RB situation is a bit weak.  Samaje Perine was drafted in the 4th rd and many feel he will be the starter before the year is out.  The Redskins should be in the 7-9 win range.  At +120 the over 7.5 is worth a bet.

Buffalo o6.5 100

It’s been 17 years since the bills last made the playoffs and the market doesn’t see that streak ending this year.  Rex Ryan has been replaced by Sean McDermott, the former Carolina Panthers defensive coordinator.  The Bills look to be a team that will try and play tough defense causing lots of turnovers while controlling the clock with their run game.  Lesean McCoy is the best offensive weapon this team has and he will be used to keep the chains moving.  Tyrod Taylor can manage the game and run a bit himself.  The loss of Sammy Watkins to Los Angeles does not lower my expectations for this team.  Watkins had troubles staying healthy for much of his career at Buffalo.  Barring some unfortunate breaks the Bills should be able to get to 7 wins and cover this over.

Cleveland o4.5 -130

The “Money Ball” front office led by Paul Podesta (chief strategy officer) has quietly put together one of the best offensive lines in football according to PFF.  This can not be overstated.  Rookie QB DeShone Kizer has a ton of potential and a big arm.  An offensive line that can keep him clean may be a recipe for some higher upside than the market predicts.  The Browns lose Terrelle Pryor but pick up Kenny Britt.  I do not expect this change to be a big deal on win totals.  Defensively this team looks fairly similar to last season.  That is not the best thing for Cleveland but it does give us something to look at for historical figures.  Even if the Browns give up 420 points as the model predicts they will need to score 305 to reach 5 wins.  That is 19 per game.  This offense will be better than that.  Take the over.

Jacksonville o6.5 -150

Jacksonville was a bit of a disappointment last season with many thinking Blake Bortles would take the next step and bring the Jaguars into the playoffs.  We were profitable on the their under last season.  This year we look for the bounceback.  Not much has changed offensively outside of the upgarde at RB with 4th overall pick Leonard Fournette.  The offensive line rates to 13th in the league on PFF which is above average.  With the added help in the run game the Jags will not rely as heavily on Bortles to carry the offense.  This should be just enough of a boost to get the Jags to 7 wins and the cover.

 

Oakland u9.5 -125

As always we tend to be on the opposite side of the consensus.  Most analysts are looking for the Raiders to do big things in 2017.  They are the 8th choice to win the Super Bowl and being an AFC team those odds get surpressed having to go through New England to get to the big game.  In the AFC they are the 3rd choice.  This team projects to be a .500 team on my model.  Normally I do not take unders on the elite QB’s.  If you think Derek Carr is in the class of elite then pass on this play.  I do not think he deserves that credit yet.  A lot of things went the Raiders way last season.  Jack Del Rio had some big gambles pay off.  The running game is going to be suspect.  Marshawn Lynch was on the decline before retiring from Seattle and now he gets the RB1 spot in his hometown.  I do not anticipate the Lynch signing to be a good one for Oakland.  Look for D. Washington or Jalen Richard to get more carries than being talked about right now.  Things need to break really well for Oakland to get 10 wins.  I will be on the under.

NY Giants u8.5 +120

The Giants with Eli Manning seem like they have always been projected for about 7-9 wins each season.  That is probably because Eli is a middle of the road QB despite his 2 Super Bowl rings.  Eli is not a QB you need to fear from a gambling standpoint.  Odell Beckham Jr. starts the season with an ankle injury.  He should miss 1 game max but anything beyond that and our under bet gets that much better.  Last season the defense carried this team as the offense struggled to put points on the board.   Brandon Marshall was signed to help take away double coverage on OBJ.   This should help the Giants offensive production.  If the Giants can be as good defensively as they were last season then they will need to be an average offensive team to get to 9 wins.   I am not sure the defense can repeat their 2016 performance.  The +120 makes it enticing enough to fade them.

LA Rams u6 -145

If you are buying into the fact that Goff will make a major leap forwad this season and become the QB the Rams expected when taking him number 1 overall then maybe you pass on this play.  Nothing I have seen thus far makes me believe that is the case.  Their 18th rank on PFF for Offensive Line further adds to my confidence on this under.  A good veteran can make a bad offensive line look better but for a guy still struggling to find his way in the league a poor line could crush him.  The best offensive weapon they have is at Rb in Todd Gurley.  If Goff can not keep defenses honest it may be a tough go for Gurley facing 8 in the box more often than not.  One positive for the Rams is they will be facing the Colts this week without Andrew Luck.  That makes them a favorite to win that game.  All in all I can not be a buyer of the Rams until the QB shows me something.   I will be selling the Rams at 6.

Houston u8.5 -115

Houston had awful QB play in 2016 but still managed to go 9-7 and earn a playoff spot.  Much of that can be attributed to the best defense in the league despite losing JJ Watt for much of the season.  Tom Savage takes over at QB for Brock Osweiler.  I am not sure if this is an upgrade at the position.   The offensive line is ranked an abismal 29th overall on PFF.  Watch for D’Onta Foreman to emerge as the premiere back in Houston after Lamar Miller struggles and/or gets injured this season.  If you like the over you are hoping this defense remains #1 and the offense improves with Savage.  I will pass on that and take the under 8.5.

 

I am leaving off the following unders due to QB’s we do not want to fade

Pittsburgh
Carolina
Green Bay
Seattle

I stayed off the over in Baltimore because I am not sure of the health on Joe Flacco.  I will not be taking the over on the Cardinals as they had too many free agent losses on the defensive side of the ball.

 

Recap
NY Jets o4 +140
Chicago o5.5 +130
Washington o7.5 +120
Buffalo o6.5 100
Cleveland o4.5 -130
Jacksonville o6.5 -150
Oakland u9.5 -125
NY Giants u8.5 +120
LA Rams u6 -145
Houston u8.5 -115

 

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