Statsational Week 11 NFL

By | November 12, 2014
We kept it light last week and it paid off.  3-2 on the day but we avoided what was one of the biggest square weeks of all time.  We were lucky enough to be on a couple of those square sides with Seattle and Detroit but we avoided most of the dogs the model typically has like Oakland, Jacksonville, Chicago, Carolina, St Louis.  The model is designed to be dynamic.  In other words if trends are changing we need to change with them.  The trick is how quickly do you change.

Favorites on the season are 75-68 ATS coming off a historic winning year last season.  The books have not been able to put the lines high enough on some of these games.  Favorites of 6.5 or more are 27-19.  In 35% of those games the favorite covered by at least 7 and in 32% at least 10.  That is really contrary to how the league has been for years and it is helping the square bettor.

Last week I spoke about the Jets being better than their record indicated.  It was a matter of not turning it over.  Against Pittsburgh they were able to win the turnover battle and with that won the game outright.  That was one of the few games that helped the books and it helped us as well.  I had some people in a large survivor pool actually take Pittsburgh in that game.  Some teams are as bad or as good as we think they are but often we need to dig deeper than record to see a clearer picture.

The model spits out games for us but how you play them is up to you.  I spoke about the Wong teasers and you may have some opportunities with those this week if your book allows it.  Another way to think about maximizing profits is to take some of the small dogs on the ML.  Over the last 10 seasons blindly playing a +2.5 or +3 team on the ML has returned 9.2% on your investment.*  With the success we have had over the past few seasons our return should be even better than that.  Take a look at taking some small dogs on the ML for a partial bet.  .5 units spread and .5 units ML or add in the Wong teasers for a small percentage as well.  Mix it up to help maximize profits or minimize variance.  Each of you has different objectives but I like to give you guys some options to think about.

NFL Week 11

1. Oakland +10.5……………………….68%

2. Seattle +1…………………………….57%

3. Detroit +2………………………………57%

4. Green Bay -5.5……………………….56%

5. Denver -9.5…………………………….55%

6. Tennessee +5.5………………………55%

7. Minnesota +3.5……………………….55%

Leans

Miami

Houston

Atlanta

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

San Francisco

New England
BOL
*Data from Sports Insights

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