Statsational Week 14 NFL

By | December 3, 2014

‚ÄčI hope everyone enjoyed their holiday. Winning 2 of 2 on Thursday certainly made digestion a lot easier. Overall we had a nice week in NFL going 6-3.

The NFL is in the home stretch. Byes are behind us, fantasy leagues are moving into their playoffs and the teams are starting to give a clearer picture as to who is a contender and who is not.

I mentioned that I put in the Packers at +700 to win the Super Bowl a few weeks ago. There were several factors that went in to that but I did mention the Passer Rating Differential stat. Teams that have led this stat for a season have won 36% of the NFL Championships or Super Bowls since 1940. Finishing top 3 produced 60% of the champions and top 10 produced 95%. It would be wise to take a look at the stat when looking for value in the futures market. Here is a list of the top 10 teams as of right now. There is still time to see some shake up as the teams in 11-13 (Saints, Atlanta, Cincinnati) are all very close to Seattle. But we have a 95% chance to see the Super Bowl winner come from this group. And more than likely it will be one of the top 3 teams on the list. None of which should be out of the top 3 come playoff time.

 

Rank Teams Off PR Def PR PRD
1 GB 115.22 82 33.21
2 Den 106.94 86.18 20.76
3 NE 102.11 84.65 17.46
4 Ind 102.68 91.14 11.54
5 SD 102.08 91.39 10.7
6 Mia 91.61 81.58 10.03
7 Dal 102.56 92.55 10.02
8 SF 87.51 77.56 9.96
9 Buf 88.15 78.52 9.64
10 Sea 94.88 85.9 8.98

Here is a chart of this seasons Passer Rating Differential and Win% for each team. This will give you an idea of how important passing and stopping the pass are in the NFL.

Rplot02

The way things look nobody will crack the top 3 that is not already in it. So your odds on favorites are Green Bay, Denver and New England. It just so happens they are favored in Vegas as well. Basing things off of historical figures, which of course may not hold true in the future, we would need to see +180 on Green Bay. At +425 there is still some value although diminished greatly from a few weeks ago. The Patriots and Denver are both in the +450 range. A bit less enticing but are they worth a play? With a 60% historical track record that one of these three teams wins we would be willing to pay -150 to buy all 3 teams to break even. Let’s look at the math in taking $100 on each of the top 3 teams.
Green Bay 36% chance winner
Denver + New England 24% chance winner
EV GB = $-100(.64)+($425*.36) = 89
EV DEN+NE = $-200(.76)+($450*.24) = -44
So just based off of these numbers playing anything other than Green Bay would not be a positive EV play. Obviously these numbers are not as precise as rolling dice or flipping a coin. There are assumptions and individual handicapping that come into play. My main point of going through this is helping you come up with a strategy when making these futures bets. Most people will make the bet because that team is the one they think will win. But often you are not getting paid what you should be. It is the equivalent of the poker player who pays even money to see a river card when he has 2 outs and a 5% chance to win the pot. When he hits he doesn’t want to hear about how his play was terrible mathematically he just wants to tell you how great he is because he won. Picking winners is part of the equation, getting paid the proper amount on your bet is the other. Continually putting yourself in negative EV plays will lose over the long haul.
I am hoping everyone is following on twitter. The CBB run has been historic. Those following have been able to take advantage of the soft lines on some of these early season games.
Here are the NFL selections for the week.
NFL Week 14
1. Carolina +10………………………………70%
2. NY Jets +6………………………………..67%
3. Tampa Bay +10…………………………..63%
4. Dallas -3.5………………………………….60%
5. Kansas City +1……………………………60%
6. San Francisco -8………………………….58%
7. Seattle +1…………………………………..57%
Leans
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Indianapolis
Houston
Tennessee
Washington
Denver
Buffalo
San Diego

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