We continue to roll with an 8-3 week in the NFL. For those following the CFB it was a great Saturday as well going 9-2. We were even able to get a win from the Jaguars, who have broken our hearts more often than not this season. As we have seen when things get hot for us it gets really hot. This is why being in every week is essential. Missing a big week can be costly.
I have been fielding a bunch of emails in regards to juice on these games. I will try and answer some questions here today.
Most games will be juiced at -110. At -110 we need to pick 52.4% correct to beat it. A quick way to figure out what the break even win % is for a particular ML is as follows:
Take the ML and divide by (-ML+100)
For a -120 line the calculation is 120/220 = 54.5%
So on games juiced up to -120 it is not the most ideal bet but it is still a number we have proven to beat over time.
Games with heavy juice tend to be around key numbers. Books will often “juice” the line as opposed to moving off or on a key number and opening themselves up to a middle. Teasers are usually -120 for two teams moving the line 6 points with a push losing. At -120 you will need to hit 73.9% of the games teased to break even.
Here is a list from Stanford Wongs book Sharps Sports Betting
2 team teasers
Most of you will have the option to tease at -120. The only teasers worth playing in the NFL are teasers that cross 2 key numbers. The key numbers are 3 and 7 as they are the most frequent margins of victory. Games land on 3 15.7% of the time and 7 9.3% of the time. Teasing a game from -9.5 to -3.5 is not nearly as strong as -8.5 to -2.5. If we only tease dogs of +1.5 to +2.5 and favorites from -7.5 to -8.5 (Wong Teasers) we have an expected return of break even without any handicapping. Historically these games win about 74% of the time which would be just above the break even on a -120 teaser.
Here are the numbers this season
Wong Teasers are 15-5 – 75%
All other teased games are 122-62 – 66%
So if you are confronted with a game that is heavy juice near the key number you may consider putting it in a teaser along with another game that fits the criteria.
NFL Week 8
1. Oakland +7………………..68%
2. St. Louis +7……………….66%
3. Washington +10………….63%
4. Indianapolis -3…………….63%
5. Philadelphia +2.5………..59%
6. Houston -1………………..57%
7. Minnesota +3……………..56%
8. Buffalo +3………………….55%