Below is a table of the raw projections for wins and losses for each team this season based on the statsational algorithm. What you will notice is the teams with the elite QB’s are all shown as having value on betting the under. What we have seen over time is that these QB’s are able to outperform the projections and as such should not be faded. For example the largest EV on the board is Green Bay u10.5 +130. This is normally a very nice EV for a bet but one we can not make. Rodgers will win games for Green Bay on days when the stats say they should have lost. I believe this is a combination of the star QB getting the calls, the rule changes that benefit the QB and the fact that in the tight games late these QB’s will outperform the market.
|Team||Wins||Losses||Total||Over Juice||Under Juice||Over EV||Under EV|
If you are looking to wager based on my projections figure out the EV of each bet to see if there is value.
Here is how you do that
Firstly you will need to do a Poisson Distribution where the average is the win total projection in the above table.
Lets take Arizona. With a projection of 10.3 wins and a total of 9.5 we will want to figure out the probability of Arizona winning 9 or fewer games. To do this I set up the following Poisson table in Excel.
This table shows the probability of Arizona winning exactly the number of games in the first column. They virtually have no chance of winning 0, 1, 2, or 4 games for the entire season. As you get closer to 10 the percentages increase. Since their number is 9.5 we will add up all the percentages from 9 and down to get a probability of 9 wins or less. That number comes out to 41.9%. To get the probability of them winning 10+ games we can just subtract 41.9% from 100% to get 58.1%.
To find the EV using the above juice we use the following formula
(Prob win) * Win Amount + (Prob Loss) * Loss Amount = EV
Assuming all bets are to win 100 for Arizona to go over 9.5 we would plug in
(58.1% * 100) + (41.9% * -190) = -21.51
So while we are fairly confident in Arizona winning over 9.5 games at -190 juice this becomes a -EV play.
You can do some algebra to figure out what number you would want to get before it becomes a positive EV play.
x = over juice
(58.1% * 100) + (41.9% * x) = 0
41.9%x = -58.1
x = -58.1/41.9
x = -1.3866
We would need juice better than -138 in order for this to move to a positive EV play.
I tend to look for a little wiggle room and give myself about 5% or greater EV before I will make a bet.
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