Statsational NFL Week 12

By | November 19, 2014

We rallied back late Sunday and Monday night after a rocky start with the early games on Sunday. We could not make a 4th down conversion multiple times in the Minnesota and Seattle games which ultimately cost us. Sunday on the whole was a bit crazy. Washington, Denver and New Orleans were all a TD or better favorite and all lost. The probability all 3 teams would lose their games was 1.6%. This is why winning a survivor pool takes a bit of luck. If you were able to pick a 10 point favorite every week, which is impossible, you would have about a 10% chance of surviving 10 weeks.

The underdogs made a big comeback with 10 wins last week. On the season dogs are now 78-79 ATS. Home teams are 78-76 ATS and 94-64 SU. Home teams are enjoying a 3.6 point advantage on the season.

Best Home Point Differential
Green Bay +26.8
New England +17
Philadelphia +15.4
Baltimore +15.4
Denver +14.8

Worst Home Point Differential
Oakland -13.5
Tampa Bay -11
Jacksonville -7.75
Tennessee -6.4
Washington -5.6
St Louis -5.6

Best Road Differential
Dallas +8.7
Buffalo +5
Indianapolis +4.8
New England +4
Arizona +3

Worst Road Differential
Jacksonville -15.8
NY Jets -13.5
Carolina -13.4
Tennessee -10
St. Louis -9

If you are unfamiliar with the passer rating differential stat and its historical significance you can read about it here. This season Green Bay is tearing up this statistical category. They are currently at 35.79. Last years Seattle team was one of the highest all time at 36.6. This Green Bay team is not quite as good on defense but they are better than the Seahawks offensively. If you follow on twitter you saw I posted a play last week on Green Bay +700 to win the Super Bowl. They have since been bet down to +450 and are currently favored. A bit of an overreaction to back to back blowouts perhaps. The value is not there anymore. Keep an eye on this stat. It can weed out some contenders and pretenders.

Passer Rating Differential

Rank Team Offense Defense Differential
1 Green Bay 116.01 80.22 35.79
2 Denver 106.14 84.11 22.03
3 New England 103.21 86.18 17.03
4 San Francisco 91.48 75.48 16
5 Miami 91.64 77.89 13.76
6 Dallas 102.73 89.31 13.43
7 Pittsburgh 106.4 93.91 12.49
8 Arizona 91.67 79.92 11.74
9 Cleveland 85.81 74.08 11.73
10 Indianapolis 99.06 90.95 8.11
11 San Diego 100.4 93.76 6.64
12 Buffalo 88.4 82.51 5.89
13 Cincinnati 84.33 79.24 5.09
14 Detroit 85.15 80.81 4.34
15 Kansas City 93.89 91.71 2.18
16 NY Giants 85.81 84.27 1.54
17 Atlanta 92.53 91.19 1.33
18 New Orleans 95.92 95.21 0.71
19 Houston 88.06 89.06 -0.99
20 Seattle 91.07 92.63 -1.57
21 Baltimore 90.65 92.71 -2.05
22 Tennessee 84.68 89.3 -4.61
23 Philadelphia 83.44 93.49 -10.04
24 Carolina 85.37 96.99 -11.62
25 Chicago 92.36 104.35 -11.99
26 St. Louis 85.38 97.9 -12.53
27 Washington 90.23 104.37 -14.13
28 Tampa Bay 82.78 100.94 -18.16
29 Minnesota 69.31 93.36 -24.05
30 Jacksonville 74.09 99.01 -24.92
31 Oakland 74.4 100.64 -26.23
32 NY Jets 68.37 108.81 -40.44

Can we cross off Philadelphia, Baltimore, Seattle, and New Orleans from Super Bowl contention?

On to week 12. We have a bunch of dogs at the top of the list. Tampa Bay is coming off a road win and now goes back on the road to face the Bears. Weather is looking to be good so that should not be a factor. Lovie Smith will look to get some revenge on his old team as will Josh McCown who very well may get a standing ovation from Bears fans who are frustrated with the play of Jay Cutler. Cutler has been a terrible QB ATS throughout his career which is no shock considering he has never lived up to expectations. It really shows when he faces teams with a sub .300 record where he is just 6-15 ATS.

If there was ever a buy low it might be Washington. They go from a TD favorite to a 9 point dog in a week. The entire city of D.C. is fed up with the lack of winning this team has done in recent years. There seems to be more talent than is being shown. Turnovers are certainly a big reason. Washington is -11 in TO differential. Teams that are sub .350 with a negative turnover differential facing teams above .500 are 60-30 ATS.

When the public gets off a team they used to love we like to swoop in and grab them. We lost with Seattle last week but we come right back on them Arizona has been playing above their heads all year. They face the defending champs who have their proverbial backs up against the wall. Seattle is in danger of missing the playoffs if they lose this week. The line is high but Russell Wilson is 12-2 in games against above .500 teams when the public is on the other side.

NFL Week 12

1. Tampa Bay +5.5…………………68%

2. Washington +9…………………..67%

3. Oakland +7.5…………………….64%

4. Tennessee +11…………………..61%

5. Green Bay -9.5…………………..58%

6. NY Jets +4.5……………………..58%

7. New Orleans -3…………………..58%

8. Denver -7………………………….57%

9. Seattle -6.5……………………….54%

 

Leans

Atlanta

New England

Jacksonville

Houston

St. Louis

NY Giants

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