The 2016 Open Championship — Round 1

By | July 12, 2016

As usual, the Open Championship is wide open.  Unlike our national championship, links golf, weather and the R&A setup incorporate a lot of randomness into the mix.  This means there are more than just a handful of names in play when it comes time to pick a winner.  Accordingly, I am avoiding the prop bets this year — too much variance and not enough value so there is no reason to chase longshots with thin odds.  Instead, I am loading up H2H action.  As Stats has taught us, when you have an advantage, more action reduces the overall variance and increases our total win.

I’m a little short on analysis this year.  We’re going with games that are trending upward (strong the last three weeks) and we’re fading guys that have not played (e.g., Rose) and those that have been volatile (many).  There are names I am watching intently — hopefully we see some opportunities before the week is done.  With that, I give you the following…


Head to Head Matchups (Tournament) – 1 unit each unless stated otherwise:

D Johnson -102 over Day

Grace +118 over Scott

Grace +115 over Garcia

Stenson -106 over Rose

Lowry +160 over Stenson

Lowry +120 over Rose

Willett +109 over Mickelson

Willett -106 over Westwood

Schwartzel -106 over Matsuyama

Sullivan -107 over Cabrera-Bello

Wood +105 over Knox

Reed -106 over Watson

Sterne – 106 over Dubuisson

Luiten -106 over Donald (2 units)

An -118 over Walker

Chappell +100  over Harrington (2 units)

Head to Head Matchups (Round 1) – 1 unit each:

Hend +120 over Walker

Kjeldsen -114 ovre Haas

McDowell +111 over Kuchar

Westwood +101 over Mickelson

Stenson +101 over Scott

Best of luck,

plus fours

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